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Bitcoin Prices Have Fallen Every January Since 2015: Is It Connected To Chinese New Year?

Only liars manage to always be out during bad times and in during good times – Bernard Baruch

Let me tell you I was in during the good time and I am in right now, during the bad time. So far, I have  received several 100 messages on what should they do about their investment now. Some I replied “HODL”, to some I said, “I don’t know”, and many I couldn’t reply.

However, one particular message from a friend caught my eye. It read “Bitcoin prices fall ahead of the Chinese New Year, be prepared for another BloodBath”. 

Now, I am a gambler by heart. I go big or go home. Usually ending up going home empty handed. But I gamble with money that is mine. It will be morally wrong if I did not analyse this and put it into perspective as many of the readers do like my blog and appreciate my posts.

A quick google search with keywords Bitcoin-prices-falling-chinese-new-year, gave no results about a correlation. My friend, who has been into crypto since before the existence of this website, read about it on twitter but doesn’t have the link so I searched on Twitter and found these:

Is Chinese New Year really affecting the prices? 

I don’t want to say Yes. Quite honestly I don’t believe in people selling their Bitcoins to buy gifts. But China is the largest market and if everyone sold even a little of their holdings, that’s definitely going to be a little close to a million BTC. But after all these are just theories. They may or may not be valid.

Bitcoin prices have fallen every January since 2015

This is true. I read the charts. I don’t like drawing lines on charts and saying “Buy a little, this is going to rise”, I do like to do some analysis. This is quite simpler though.

Did the prices fall every January or not? 

From 2015, yes. They did. Look at them:

January 2015:

Bitcoin price fell from $352 on December 12, 2014 to $192 on January 14, 2015

Bitcoin prices fall ahead of Chinese New Year
Bitcoin Price Chart Source: Bitcoin.com

January 2016:

Bitcoin price fell from $462 on December 19, 2015 to $381 on January 16, 2016

Bitcoin prices falling as Chinese are cashing out
Bitcoin Price Chart Source: Bitcoin.com

January 2017:

Bitcoin price fell from $1070 on January 04, 2017 to $798 on January 12, 2017

Asian markets causing the Bitcoin market to fall
Bitcoin Price Chart Source: Bitcoin.com

January 2018:

Bitcoin price fell from $19202 on December 16, 2014 to $11507 on January 16, 2018

In with 2018 should be dramatic :P. Bitcoin Price Chart Source: Bitcoin.com

Will the Price of Bitcoin go Back to $20000?

I wish it would. I have incurred some heavy losses myself. However, the end of 2017 saw a huge surge in number of traders. So much so that exchanges had to shut down registrations. With the prices down, we might see these people leaving Cryptocurrency for good. Then we will be left with gutsy investors and a bunch of newbies who are entering now. Then the price rise could be slow.

Any predictions on Bitcoin made by me has no value. I am just an unknown blogger. But, as you can see in the charts, the prices did go up after every January dip, so they may go up now as well.

Back to the Chinese New Year:

The dates of the Chinese New Years are:

2014 – 31 January

2015 – 19 February

2016 – 8 February

2017 – 28 January

2018 – 16 February

If you believe that Chinese New year is responsible for the fall. There is time for it. Close to a month. So do keep an eye.

What happened in January 2014 to Bitcoin Prices?

I am glad you asked. The Chinese new year was on 31st Jan, and not the second/third week of February. Instead of January 2014, the prices show a sharp fall in December 2013. A little over a month before the Chinese New Year. I still don’t think that makes any sense but well, the data is there.

Since I always insist on DYOR – Do your own research I am going to let you decide if you want to see the graph or not. Go check it out if you wish to.

What next?

How about reading a poetry?

And Sharing the article to your friends 🙂

 

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