Only liars manage to always be out during bad times and in during good times – Bernard Baruch
Let me tell you I was in during the good time and I am in right now, during the bad time. So far, I have received several 100 messages on what should they do about their investment now. Some I replied “HODL”, to some I said, “I don’t know”, and many I couldn’t reply.
However, one particular message from a friend caught my eye. It read “Bitcoin prices fall ahead of the Chinese New Year, be prepared for another BloodBath”.
Now, I am a gambler by heart. I go big or go home. Usually ending up going home empty handed. But I gamble with money that is mine. It will be morally wrong if I did not analyse this and put it into perspective as many of the readers do like my blog and appreciate my posts.
A quick google search with keywords Bitcoin-prices-falling-chinese-new-year, gave no results about a correlation. My friend, who has been into crypto since before the existence of this website, read about it on twitter but doesn’t have the link so I searched on Twitter and found these:
Is bitcoin going to crash? NO! why the price drop? 1: Its Lunar (Chinese) New Year, china constitutes biggest bitcoin trade by volume & they offload to buy presents & travel 2: The past 4 years have resulted in similar price drops. NB dont panic & sell, Its crypto Black Friday!
— mawanda blouw (@mawandablouw) January 18, 2018
Theory 1: Wall Street bonuses come this week, they need to create a desirable price to buy in at
Theory 2: Due to Chinese New Year need of disposable cash for gift shopping pic.twitter.com/LwIfEAyB91
— Crypto Capital (@CryptoCapitalll) January 16, 2018
Is Chinese New Year really affecting the prices?
I don’t want to say Yes. Quite honestly I don’t believe in people selling their Bitcoins to buy gifts. But China is the largest market and if everyone sold even a little of their holdings, that’s definitely going to be a little close to a million BTC. But after all these are just theories. They may or may not be valid.
Bitcoin prices have fallen every January since 2015
This is true. I read the charts. I don’t like drawing lines on charts and saying “Buy a little, this is going to rise”, I do like to do some analysis. This is quite simpler though.
Did the prices fall every January or not?
From 2015, yes. They did. Look at them:
Bitcoin price fell from $352 on December 12, 2014 to $192 on January 14, 2015
Bitcoin price fell from $462 on December 19, 2015 to $381 on January 16, 2016
Bitcoin price fell from $1070 on January 04, 2017 to $798 on January 12, 2017
Bitcoin price fell from $19202 on December 16, 2014 to $11507 on January 16, 2018
Will the Price of Bitcoin go Back to $20000?
I wish it would. I have incurred some heavy losses myself. However, the end of 2017 saw a huge surge in number of traders. So much so that exchanges had to shut down registrations. With the prices down, we might see these people leaving Cryptocurrency for good. Then we will be left with gutsy investors and a bunch of newbies who are entering now. Then the price rise could be slow.
Any predictions on Bitcoin made by me has no value. I am just an unknown blogger. But, as you can see in the charts, the prices did go up after every January dip, so they may go up now as well.
Back to the Chinese New Year:
The dates of the Chinese New Years are:
2014 – 31 January
2015 – 19 February
2016 – 8 February
2017 – 28 January
2018 – 16 February
If you believe that Chinese New year is responsible for the fall. There is time for it. Close to a month. So do keep an eye.
What happened in January 2014 to Bitcoin Prices?
I am glad you asked. The Chinese new year was on 31st Jan, and not the second/third week of February. Instead of January 2014, the prices show a sharp fall in December 2013. A little over a month before the Chinese New Year. I still don’t think that makes any sense but well, the data is there.
Since I always insist on DYOR – Do your own research I am going to let you decide if you want to see the graph or not. Go check it out if you wish to.
How about reading a poetry?
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