“Resist the urge to close down positions. If you have the emotional and financial resources, go the other way.” – Dan Pantera
Pantera Capital, a major investor in India’s Crypto Exchange Koinex, is an investment firm that exclusively invests in Cryptocurrency and Distributed ledger/Blockchain companies. In a letter published recently, Pantera predicted that $6500 is the lowest Bitcoin can go in the current bear market.
The letter attributes, albeit partially to the recent sell offs to USA’s Tax Due date coming close, which is today, April 15. In the US you are liable to pay taxes on every transaction where you made profits. Citizens were probably made aware of this by their tax filers or accountants very recently. Hence, the traders who had kept their funds in the market, sold off to get the liquidity for paying their taxes.
Furthermore the company points to the market’s resilience to SEC’s crackdown of scams. Recently SEC went after multiple ICOs that looked and smelled like fraudulent projects. Pantera says that there was no effect of this negative news on the markets and hence the bottom we saw is “atleast a Midterm Bottom”.
“I think the vast majority of the next 365 days will be above that price ($6500). It’s highly likely to have exceeded $20,000 within a year.”
Insists on Going ‘Against the urge’.
Pantera explains that human nature is cynical and carries a herd mentality, and that is something we have learned through evolution. Being together as a herd is what saved our ancestors from being killed by wild animals.
The theory can be applied to trading as well:
- When the prices go up. FOMO kicks in. Everyone is buying, you want to get in and get a piece of it too.
- Prices go down, pressure to end the pain of looking at decreased earnings or even losses kicks in. This is also attributed to our peers, friends and family who constantly remind us of our positions.
“Resist the urge to close down positions. If you have the emotional and financial resources, go the other way.”
Is it Buy Season Now?
According to Pantera it is. Bitcoin is below its 200 day moving average and it is a ‘rare buy signal’. With the US tax season over, Bitcoin prices already above $8000, we believe Pantera turned out to be right and they published just 3 days ago.
Do you think it is a good time to buy? Are you bullish on Bitcoin? Let us know in the comments below