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China Isn’t Likely To Reconsider Ban

The news that China is seeking public opinion on crypto mining is giving rise to a view that the ban may be reconsidered and quashed.

China might be unbanning the crypto industry. This news is spreading like wildfire.

Is it really the case?

On October 21, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) opened a forum to seek public opinion on adding crypto mining to its list of phased out industries.

The public consultation is open from October 21 to November 21, 2021.

Scores of crypto influencers and media outlets are interpreting it as a step towards the revocation of the ban.

Reasons for Why The Ban May Not be Repealed

It is highly improbable that the ban would be reversed.

Even if it does happen, it is highly unlikely that the industry will make a return.

It is a huge political risk. No company would like to return to a country with such a fickle policy because there is no assurance that the ban will not be reimposed. Thus, the suspension of the ban would rather hurt the image of China as a global business hub.

Another point to consider is that if the Government really wished to seek public opinion on the ban, it would not have imposed it in the first place. The Government doesn’t have the option of crying on spilt milk. The right process is to consult the public first, and then the appropriate action would have been taken.

Also, the interpretation of the NDRC public consultation is wrong. The Government wants to ask the public whether to put a name on the list of phased out industries or not. Nowhere it is mentioned that public opinion is sought to make a policy change. Even if the name does not appear on the list, there is no guarantee that the ban will be overturned.

Finally, a state-owned media outlet recently published an article enumerating the demerits of crypto mining, clearly communicating the stance of the Government.

China has reiterated its wishes to achieve carbon neutrality several times this year. That’s why it cracked down on it. Moreover, it sees crypto as a means of tax evasion. Only the government can tell what it is planning to do next. So, there is more evidence suggesting that the ban may continue.

Wrong interpretation can generate false hopes. If something seems ambiguous, it should be questioned to the point of clarity.

News recommendation: Indian Expats Turn to Crypto for Remittance

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